Epidemiološke projekcije Slovenija

[This is a copy from my Facebook post on January 31, 2021]

My projections are rather more optimistic than IHME's and much more than those of Institut Jožef Stefan and published Slovenian Government projections. The final death tolll will be even lower when accounted for the direct vaccination protection of elderly (will add to the model later).

My projections for Croatia based on the same model proved correct to within 2% for January.

First, confirmed (PCR) cases, the main SIR model.:

The ‘dark factor’ to calculate ‘R’ (recovered) is rather conservative:

Second, deaths projections with the red dot denoting today:

Vaccination details in the comments. Some of the vaccinated will already have immunity from infections.

The assumed vaccination schedule, not a critical input to the model at this point (this part contributing to the herd immunity is not dominant, especially before late spring arrives - seasonality). Efficacy assumed at 100% - not an important assumption since I erred on conservative side by fast AB waning.

For comparison, the current IHME projections:

Institut Jožef Stefan has a very pessimistic projections:

Death projections very high, reaching 4,200 alredy in mid-march, the path beein rather steep, probably in the range of 5,500 on 1 May.

EDIT: On January 31, the Slovenian Government šublished its projections, also much more pessimistic than mine: