Projections Slovenia 26-03, update 01-04

Here is an update on 01-04. I am attaching the IJS projections on the same day.

For my Slovenian friends —

I think Slovenian quasi-official projections by IJS are wrong, calling for quasi-exponentital growth. From the following chart, it is obvious that the current wave is expected to grow larger than the previous one:

Similralry, I think beds in hospitals needed, and expected deaths are overstated in the model as of today.

Here are the projections based on my SIR model:

Current dark multiple is set to only 2:

Seasonality ia s factor in the model, and the current level of natural immunity and from vaccination should be enough to subdue the epidemics in this season, and reach the HIT (barring significant immune evasion) in autumn: