Epidemiološke projekcije Slovenija

This is an update to my projections from 31 January, which are, for reference purposes, visible bellow.

In the meantime, Institut Jožef Stefan completely changed their projections, and virtually converged to mine. My projections are still pretty much more optimistic then IHME’s.

These new projections are somewhat more optimistic than the previous ones, estimating 4,150 Covid-related deaths by the end of April.

Old projections

Here for reference purposes, you can find them here.

[This is a copy from my Facebook post on January 31, 2021]

My projections are rather more optimistic than IHME's and much more than those of Institut Jožef Stefan and published Slovenian Government projections. The final death tolll will be even lower when accounted for the direct vaccination protection of elderly (will add to the model later).

My projections for Croatia based on the same model proved correct to within 2% for January.

First, confirmed (PCR) cases, the main SIR model.:

The ‘dark factor’ to calculate ‘R’ (recovered) is rather conservative:

Second, deaths projections with the red dot denoting today:

Vaccination details in the comments. Some of the vaccinated will already have immunity from infections.

The assumed vaccination schedule, not a critical input to the model at this point (this part contributing to the herd immunity is not dominant, especially before late spring arrives - seasonality). Efficacy assumed at 100% - not an important assumption since I erred on conservative side by fast AB waning.